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(War in Times of Peace, Sanaa, 2nd and 3d November 2002)





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The West

Public opinion between "ideological withdrawal" and "dialogue between civilisations"

Events of September 11th have provoked diametrically opposed reactions : for some it has proved the validity of the "clash of civilizations" model, and has fueled ideological withdrawal and radicalisation. For others, it has demonstrated just as clearly the dangers presented by mere reference to this "clash", and has urged both more vigorous "cultural dialogue" and, even more urgently, political answers to conflicts which often appear to be more political than cultural, ideological, religious or "civilisational" in nature.

What are the assumptions underlying these two contradictory attitudes and how could the less conflictual attitude be supported ?

The role of culture

Globalisation has led us ­ even before September 11th ­ to the feeling that the world is melting into global economic and cultural conformity. Cultural particularities have to be defended against the mainstream. Is it justifiable to believe that September 11th will boost this tendency toward an overwhelming mainstream culture ? Moreover, it has been claimed that these terrorists attacks have to be seen in a larger context of violent protest against the economic and

cultural domination of the North and against the latter's policies in the Middle East. Can September 11th really be seen as a terrorist outcry against the dark side of globalisation and US policies in the Middle East­ or is this just a cynical, rather obvious pretext of the billionaire Osama Bin Laden ?

Actually, the question remains of how to create space for cultural particularities after September 11th as globalisation

proceeds unhampered. Can America be seen as a new Roman Empire ­ combining military strength, economic power and some sort of a "superior culture" that makes it irresistible, acting on behalf of a rather Hegelian "Weltgeist" ?

"Over-ideologizing" secular resistance to world order

The monopoly that Islamic terminology holds for expression of political demands in the Muslim world meets a Western inclination to inflate secular conflicts into ideological power struggles between world orders. Do we have to strip off the belligerent terms of holy war in order to discover what is underneath ? Do words like terrorism and fundamentalism in fact obscure precise analysis ? Do we have to de-construct the idea of a homogeneous Islamic movement that threatens the world in order to realize that it is just another way to express protest against all kinds of deprivation including fundamental freedoms ?

Following President Bush's challenge to be either with or against America, there is little room left for relative dissent and neutrality. This Manichean approach to world politics means that non-western faiths or claims to separate identities are viewed in an excessively essentialist manner instead of acknowledging their political dimension. By branding dissenters as fundamentalists or chauvinists the legitimacy of their stance is put beyond the politically acceptable at the risk of radicalising them further. How can reason be brought back to analysis and policies when simplification and "over-ideologizing" rules ?

Triumph of security approaches

September 11th has justified increasing military budgets, restructuring intelligence systems and developing new security technologies. Borders are being tightened and security measures stepped up. The Western world, with America leading, feels threatened and prepares - not only mentally but also practically - for war. How do you see the impact on internal political agendas in Europe, America and Japan in general ? How has September 11th influenced parliamentary elections in the Western world in particular ?

Muslims in the Western world: Integration or Ostracism ?

September 11th has increased pressure on Muslims in the Western world. Bearing in mind that most of the terrorists of September 11th had been harboured in Western societies for many years, the Western public has cast suspicion on the entirety of its own Muslim communities. More and more voices are being raised to urge, indeed to force, these communities to integrate better into the world of Western values and moreover to support Western policies. Otherwise they are at risk of being ostracised. How much "otherness" can the Western society and Muslims living in West endure ? Is there a "third way" for Muslims in the Western world between assimilation or exclusion ?

America going solo ?

In the war against terrorism America has built up its own coalition. Already existing supranational institutions such as NATO, and the UN or the EU have been marginalized; their contribution has been confined to the expression of solidarity. From the beginning, the US has emphasised : "It is the task that determines the coalition, not the coalition that determines the task." Is America going solo ? Has September 11th finally put an end to multilateralism ? And what role can Europe play ? Does Europe have its own agenda for example in the Middle East ?

In Afghanistan a new situation has emerged : America chased the Taliban away by military means, Europe is helping to reconstruct the devastated Afghan state and society. Is this the new western division of labour - America bombs, Europe rebuilds ?

In the war against terrorism America focuses on parts of the world other than Europe. Central Asia and the Middle East are focal areas of American foreign policy now. Has the political and military transatlantic partnership finally come to an end? Is America gradually preparing its retreat from the European continent and slowly moving eastward ?

Japan's Choice

After September 11th, Japan, not being directly targeted by Al Qaeda, had a choice between strict alignment on the US "global war against terrorism" and exploring a more individualistic response. Which direction has been chosen ?

The East

The Arab regimes

September 11th was also a wake-up call for the Arab states. The growing frustration in their populations and the number of unsolved conflicts in the region seem to make reforms within these regimes even more necessary than ever. Have the Arab states responded to this challenge ? How serious is their willingness to effect political and economic reforms ? Do we face a time of reform ahead or a relapse into authoritarian behaviour now justified in the name of international counter-terrorism ?

Islamic opposition

In many Arab countries, the Islamic opposition is the strongest, if not the only, group resisting authoritarian regimes. The Islamic opposition openly accuse rulers of lacking legitimacy, of corruption and of submissiveness towards the West. In the aftermath of September 11th regimes struck back and crushed the Islamic opposition. Has September 11th served to criminalize further the Islamic opposition ? Does the war against terrorism boost repressive options ? In some countries, such as Yemen, the ruling elite tried to find a consensus with the Islamic opposition. Are these approaches jeopardised by the war against terrorism ?

The Islamic parties between pragmatism and radicalisation

September 11th has sharpened the world's eyes toward extremism. However, the thin line between legitimate resistance and terrorism is often blurred. The Islamic parties have to make clear statements now as to their stance on violence, democracy and human rights. They have to decide between pragmatism and radicalisation. What role can they play in the future of Islamic states ? Is it true that the occurrence of Islamic terrorism has to be interpreted as a sign of the movement's weakness, the final futile battle before Islamic fundamentalism vanishes as a serious threat ? What is the present balance of forces inside the Islamic movement, between the existing reform (enlightenment ?) movement in sight and the trend toward greater radicalism ?

The price of cooperation

The US offers great help to all who are willing to cooperate in the war against terrorism. Countries like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Yemen profit from their support of US military action. But what is the price of this cooperation with the US ? Shaking the internal consensus ? Ignoring the feelings of the population ? Imposing an unpopular foreign policy by dictatorial means ? Does external influence put at risk the internal achievements in finding consensus in the society ?

Regional Orders

Arabian Peninsula under surveillance ?

Although no state on the Arabian Peninsula was labelled a member of the "axis of evil", two of these states, namely Saudi Arabia and Yemen, were put under close surveillance. They are on probation. How can these states liberate themselves from their bad reputations ? How can confidence between the Western world and these states be rebuilt ? How can they become equal partners instead of suspects ? What needs to be done to please America and why should it be done ?

False hopes for a Palestinian State ?

After the shock of September 11th the unsolved Middle East conflict was easily identified as one of the underlying reasons. New efforts were expected to come to a conclusion, to reach a mutually just and peaceful solution. What in fact happened was a major setback : intensified Israeli occupation and increasing operations of "retaliation" on the one hand, more Palestinian suicide attacks on the other hand. The violent option seems to have prevailed in the reasoning of all concerned parties. The hopes of a viable Palestinian state alongside the Israeli state are dwindling. How much does Palestinian misery add to the frustration in the Islamic world ?

Contradictions in the Horn of Africa

After having considered it temporarily a potential safe haven or regrouping base for Al-Qaeda, the US has again lost interest in Somalia. Meanwhile Djibouti is quietly turning into an international base with US, German and Spanish boats and aircrafts using it and

benefiting from the longstanding French presence. What does it take to attract Western interest and why is Sudan now worth attention and peace-brokering efforts while Somalis are left in misery ?

Afghanistan's international comeback

Nobody expected Afghanistan's international comeback so quickly. After having been the outcast of the international community for such a long time, the country changed into a focus country for all kinds of international help within a couple of months. Can this serve as a model for the integration of so-called former "rogue states" ? In the end it was American bombs that succeeded in toppling the Taliban regime, all civilian attempts undertaken earlier having failed. What lessons have to be learned ?

But has Afghanistan already overcome its internal cleavages ? Is the absence of the Taliban, the presence of international help and one Lloya Jirga enough to wipe out twenty years of civil war ?

Dealing with "rogue states"

Over the coming months the debate about an armed US intervention against Iraq may end with actual use of force, yet no plan is available on how to deal with a post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. At the regional level Iran may come next in line. Where and how will the other lesser global powers (China, Russia and Europe) be able to stop the USA from redrawing the map as it pleases ?

How long will Syria and Libya, a earlier generation of rogue states, manage to walk the fine line between Arab solidarity and counter-terrorism cooperation ?


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